Updated: October 2024; Published: July 2017
GiveWell’s research team regularly makes probabilistic forecasts about future outcomes to record the implicit predictions that inform our decisions, and to make it possible for us to look back on how well-calibrated and accurate those predictions were. Since 2021, we have been publishing our forecasts publicly on grant pages. Beginning in 2023, we annually track our forecasts as they resolve, analyze our performance, and strategize ways to improve both our forecasting and our decision-making. We hope these analyses will help us improve our forecasting over time and be transparent about how our expectations have held up to reality. We expect to occasionally publish updates about how this work is going.