References for "How much funding does GiveWell expect to raise through 2025?"

[1] This chart, which we also discuss later in the post, is intended to give a general sense of possibilities. The overall shape seems approximately right to us, but the exact numbers are very uncertain.

[2] Note that "funds directed," which we discussed in the 2021 blog post, is different from "funds raised" in a given year, which is the focus of this blog post. "Funds raised" is simpler to forecast because it doesn't involve estimating the timing of grant decisions or when certain types of funding become available.

[3] This table gives the underlying data for this chart. These figures aren't intended to be as precise as the number of significant figures might imply. We're using this model to get a general sense of possibilities, and we're using rough estimates and simplifying assumptions that mean it's not entirely accurate.

Future funds raised, including Open Philanthropy, in millions of dollars

[4] The dip from 2021 to 2022 is due to a combination of (a) a one-off donation of around $50 million from Vitalik Buterin in 2021 and (b) a change in how we're measuring funds raised to exclude the (historically substantial) amount of funding given to GiveDirectly as a result of our recommendation, due to this change to our top charities list. Without those two things, we estimate that funds raised would have increased from 2021 to 2022. 2022 figures are not yet final.

[5] This table gives the underlying data for this chart. These figures aren't intended to be as precise as the number of significant figures might imply. We're using this model to get a general sense of possibilities, and we're using rough estimates and simplifying assumptions that mean it's not entirely accurate.

Future funds raised, excluding Open Philanthropy, in millions of dollars